Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E27) MANAGED ONLY TO PRODUCE A B4 SUBFLARE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION HAS DECAYED BUT REMAINS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX WITH A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGIONS 8123 (N18W77) AND 8125 (N19E28) HAVE REMAINED STABLE AND MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. REGION 8126 (N21E66) HAS GROWN BUT REMAINS A SIMPLE HHX SPOT WITH NO OBSERVED TRAILER SPOTS. THIS REGION PRODUCED A B8 SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAS SEEMINGLY REVEALED SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO LOW TO MODERATE AS REGION 8124 SLOWLY DECAYS AND 8126 GROWS. BOTH REGIONS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING AND A SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCTING ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 DEC 108
  Predicted   25 DEC-27 DEC  108/108/108
  90 Day Mean        24 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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