Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW DUE TO AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE AT 20/1940Z. OPTICAL PATROL WAS UNHINDERED
DURING THIS TIME SO THE BURST MOST LIKELY CAME FROM BEHIND THE EAST
OR WEST LIMB. EXISTING DISK REGIONS REMAINED STABLE OR DECAYED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A VERY LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 20/0300-0600Z AND 20/1500-2100Z PERIODS WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY INCREASED DURING
THE PERIOD TO OVER 450 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 JAN 091 Predicted 21 JAN-23 JAN 090/089/088 90 Day Mean 20 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN 012/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN 010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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