Viewing archive of Monday, 19 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A B3 FLARE AND WEAK TYPE
II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 19/0711Z. THE SOURCE REGION BECAME APPARENT
FROM SPACE-BASED IMAGERY WHICH INDICATED AN ERUPTION NEAR N28W81
FOLLOWED BY A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). THE EVENT BEGAN LATE
YESTERDAY AS A DARK, BROAD SIX DEGREE LONG FILAMENT BECAME ACTIVE
THEN SLOWLY BEGAN LOSING MASS BEFORE FINALLY ERUPTING. REGION 8131
(S24W88) EXPERIENCED SEVERAL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT IS NOW QUIETLY ROTATING AROUND THE WEST LIMB. NEW REGIONS
8140 (S14W61) AND 8141 (N26E48) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. THE REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET. MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S CME APPEARED
WESTWARD DIRECTED SO NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 JAN 094 Predicted 20 JAN-22 JAN 092/090/088 90 Day Mean 19 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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