Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED B CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND MINOR RADIO SWEEPS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8119 (N32W38) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW GROWTH AND IS NOW A 15 SPOT DSO BETA GROUP. NEW REGION 8122 (N31W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND DEVELOPED IMPRESSIVELY INTO AN 18 SPOT DRO BETA GROUP. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8119 HAS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARING. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN REGION 8122. IF THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, IT MAY SOON BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH BEGAN YESTERDAY, IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THE FIELD IS NOW AT PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
Class M05%15%15%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 DEC 096
  Predicted   12 DEC-14 DEC  094/094/096
  90 Day Mean        11 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/010-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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