Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8152 (S22W71) IS THE LIKELY SOURCE REGION FOR SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR B-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION EXHIBITED NUMEROUS INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT SHOWED NO APPARENT CHANGE IN SPOT COUNT OR COMPLEXITY. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET. A POOR-QUALITY SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION IS IN A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION AND MAY CREATE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 FEB 083
  Predicted   08 FEB-10 FEB  083/083/084
  90 Day Mean        07 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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