Viewing archive of Friday, 27 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8169 (S20W44) IS A 3-SPOT BXO BETA, REGION 8170 (N00E02) IS A 1-SPOT AXX, AND REGION 8171 (S214E05) IS A 3-SPOT BXO BETA. REGION 8164 HAS DECREASED IN SIZE TO 90 MILLIONTHS, BUT REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL NEW REGIONS HAVE BEEN NUMBERED, AND BEGIN TO GROW. REGION 8164 RETAINS THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 28 FEB to 02 MAR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 FEB 090
  Predicted   28 FEB-02 MAR  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-02 MAR  010/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 FEB to 02 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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