Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES HAVE OCCURRED. REGION 8194 (S18E24) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY, A C5/1F AT 08/2138Z. THREE ACTIVE REGIONS WERE NEWLY NUMBERED: 8200 (S21E06), 8201 (N19E62), AND 8202 (S21E56). REGION 8200 IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP PENUMBRA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR FLARE ACTIVITY ARE REGIONS 8194, 8195 (S27E27), 8198 (S28E49), AND 8200.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 APR 140
  Predicted   10 APR-12 APR  140/140/138
  90 Day Mean        09 APR 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  005/010-005/010-010/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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