Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8203 (N31W41) STABILIZED DURING THE PERIOD AND WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF A C9 X-RAY BURST AT 0111Z. NEW REGION 8204 (S15E12) WAS BORN ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8203.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMANGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE INTERVAL, THEN QUIET BY 19 APRIL. A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM SHOULD ELEVATE ACTIVITY TO A SLIGHT DEGREE ON 17 APRIL.
III. Event Probabilities 17 APR to 19 APR
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 APR 106
  Predicted   17 APR-19 APR  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        16 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 APR to 19 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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