Viewing archive of Friday, 20 March 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W69) PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES, A C2.8/SF AT 20/1857Z AND A C1/SF AT 20/2030Z, PLUS A FEW VERY MINOR SUBFAINT FLARES. SEVEN UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL. THESE MAY HAVE ORIGINATED JUST BEHIND THE SE LIMB (S26) WHERE AN ACTIVE SURGE REGION WAS VISIBLE MOST OF THE DAY AND AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ENDING AT 20/1234Z. THIS IS LIKELY THE RETURN OF REGION 8171 (S24L235), BUT NO SPOTS HAVE APPEARED ON THE LIMB YET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8179, STILL GROWING SLOWLY, HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A FAIR CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
Class M45%45%25%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 MAR 127
  Predicted   21 MAR-23 MAR  125/118/116
  90 Day Mean        20 MAR 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR  005/012-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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