Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATIONS. REGION 8156 (S25 W72) APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF GRADUAL DECAY, LOSING A FEW SPOTS. NEW REGION 8162 (S32E46), A SMALL, STABLE B-CLASS GROUP, WAS NUMBERED. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) WAS DETECTED BEGINNING AROUND 21/0200UT. MOST OF THE MASS WAS SEEN DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB, SLIGHTLY DECLINED TO THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW WITH REGION 8156 PROVIDING A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS BEGINNING 21/1812UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH 23 FEBRUARY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 FEB 095
  Predicted   22 FEB-24 FEB  094/092/090
  90 Day Mean        21 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB  005/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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