Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS WITH A OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURST DETECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8156 (S25W89) WAS STABLE AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. 8158 (S20W69) GREW FROM PLAGE TO A SMALL B-CLASS GROUP AS SEVERAL SPOTS EMERGED. NEW REGION 8163 (S22W28), A SMALL B-CLASS GROUP, WAS NUMBERED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) DESCRIBED IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT INDICATED THE CME WAS LIKELY NON-EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8156 AS IT ROUNDS THE LIMB TOMORROW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH 23 FEBRUARY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING 24 - 25 FEBRUARY WITH MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 FEB 096
  Predicted   23 FEB-25 FEB  094/092/090
  90 Day Mean        22 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  005/005-010/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 FEB to 25 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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