Viewing archive of Monday, 26 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY ROSE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8145 (N28E35) PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 25/2136UT ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE REGION WAS A SMALL, STABLE BIPOLE BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE FLARE. REGION 8143 CONTINUED TO DISPLAY MODEST GROWTH IN SPOT COUNT AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. REGION 8142 (S22W45) PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH 28 JANUARY. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 29 JANUARY IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL-HALO CME DETECTED ON 25 JANUARY. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LATITUDES DURING THE DISTURBANCE. ISOLATED MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 JAN 100
  Predicted   27 JAN-29 JAN  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        26 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN  002/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN  005/005-005/005-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%60%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%70%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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