Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SPOTLESS PLAGE AREA PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION C1/SF FLARE AT 25/1512UT. THE FLARE SITE WAS NEAR N21E25. AN ASSOCIATED, EASTWARD-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED DEPARTING THE EAST LIMB BEGINNING ABOUT 25/1500UT. REGION 8142 (S21W35) GREW SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED A C-CLASS SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8143 (S35E36) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY GROW IN SPOT COUNT AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. NEW REGION 8147 (S23E02) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8143.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET, BUT BECAME DISTURBED DURING 25/0400 - 0600UT WITH ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED TOMORROW SUBSIDING TO MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 JAN 108
  Predicted   26 JAN-28 JAN  106/108/110
  90 Day Mean        25 JAN 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JAN to 28 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm02%02%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

All times in UTC

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