Viewing archive of Friday, 15 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE SINCE
YESTERDAY WAS A C1/SF AT 15/0221Z IN REGION 8218 (S21W45). OTHER
ACTIVE REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY IN REGION 8218.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 15/1453Z WHEN A SUDDEN IMPULSE
(SI) WAS DETECTED ON GROUND MAGNETOMETERS (ABOUT 6 NT AT THE BOULDER
STATION). THIS SI WAS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
SOLAR WIND SHOCK THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT ABOUT
15/1356Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAY 116 Predicted 16 MAY-18 MAY 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 15 MAY 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 008/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
Latest news
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Sunday, 23 February 2025
X2.0 solar flare from sunspot region 4001
Friday, 7 February 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth, Minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
CMEs from March 16-17 and small CH 92Filaments and prominences 72850 mhz F2 63Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 344AR 4031 2
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
21:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 20:59 UTC
21:00 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.54 flare
20:42 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.36)
17:12 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 52GW at 18:01 UTC
00:54 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 113GW at 01:33 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/19 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 138.4 -16.2 |
| Last 30 days | 143 -10 |