Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8243 (N18W25) PRODUCED A C4/1N FLARE AT 20/1430Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II/IV RADIO SWEEP AND A DECAMETRIC BURST ACROSS THE SPECTRUM (59 SFU AT 2695 MHZ). NEW REGION 8252 (S29W03) WAS NUMBERED. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ANOTHER C-CLASS FLARE IS PROBABLE IN REGION 8243. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 JUN to 23 JUN
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 JUN 101
  Predicted   21 JUN-23 JUN  102/104/106
  90 Day Mean        20 JUN 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUN  016/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUN-23 JUN  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 JUN to 23 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 18:59 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (22.74nT), the direction is North (17.96nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.31

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