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Viewing archive of Friday, 3 July 1998

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0112Z WITH ASSOCIATED MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8256 (S24W33) WHICH GREW CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH STILL SMALL IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION WENT FROM THREE VISIBLE SPOTS YESTERDAY TO 24 TODAY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PLAGE FIELD WHILE PRODUCING THREE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. RECENT MAG MAPS SUGGEST A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8253 (N17W74) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION 8256. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ALREADY EXIST IN THIS REGION AND FURTHER GROWTH IS EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03/00-03Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY LATE 4 JUL THROUGH 5 JUL AS A RESULT OF THE C6/SF ON 1 JUL.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUL to 06 JUL
Class M35%40%40%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 JUL 128
  Predicted   04 JUL-06 JUL  128/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUL to 06 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%35%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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