Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 July 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THREE C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS: A C1 FROM REGION 8280 (S21E54) AT 1605Z, A C1 FROM REGION 8281 (N18E45) AT 1630Z, AND A C1 FROM REGION 8282 (N33E56) AT 1745Z. REGIONS 8281 AND 8282 ARE BOTH RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT ARE GROWING. REGION 8280 CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND APPEARS TO BE GROWING SLOWLY. NEVERTHELESS, THE REGION IS REMARKABLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8280 SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH SOME MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE PERIOD FROM 0300-1500Z WAS PARTICULARLY DISTURBED AND ATTAINED MAXIMUM FROM 09-12Z WITH AN ESTIMATED KP OF 6. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH SPEED STREAM WITH VELOCITIES UP TO 700 KM/S OBSERVED BY ACE. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT, BZ, SHOWED REGULAR, STRONG FLUCTUATIONS VARYING BETWEEN +10 NT TO -10NT. THIS WAVE ACTIVITY WAS MANIFESTED IN THE GROUND BASED MAGNETOMETER SIGNATURE AS FREQUENTLY FLUCTUATING FIELD VARIATIONS. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY FROM 1500-2100Z THE WAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED BUT WAS WEAKER (+/- 5 NT), AND THIS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN A WEAKENED MAGNETIC DISTANCE: MID-LATITUDES WERE ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM. AFTER THE FACT SOLAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM IS DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY AT HIGH-LATITUDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JUL 115
  Predicted   24 JUL-26 JUL  115/112/110
  90 Day Mean        23 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUL to 26 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SATELLITE FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SATELLITE (THIS NOTICE SUPERCEDES THE EARLIER DECISION THAT HAD ASSIGNED GOES-10 AS PRIMARY)

All times in UTC

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