Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY EVENT AT 02/0513Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8292 (N24E04), A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP, 8293 (S20E70), A SMALL D-TYPE GROUP, AND 8294, A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TEN ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH A CUMULATIVE SUNSPOT COUNT OF ONLY 16 TO 17.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 AUG 110
  Predicted   03 AUG-05 AUG  108/108/106
  90 Day Mean        02 AUG 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG  017/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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