Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C5 AT 1836Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION 8307 (N32W52) CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST ONE OF THE C-CLASS EVENTS AT 1535Z. THE GROUP WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND STABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8319 (N19W29) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIZE. REGION 8323 (S23E65) ROTATED FURTHER INTO VIEW TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE A BIPOLAR GROUP WITH PENUMBRA IN THE LEADER AND TRAILER.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. HOWEVER, EACH OF THE REGIONS 8307, 8319 AND 8323 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDES. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM WITH WAVE-LIKE ACTIVITY IN THE BZ INTERPLANETARY FIELD. VARIATIONS IN BZ DOWN TO -5 NT ARE UNDOUBTEDLY THE SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES HAVE BEEN HIGH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 24/2355Z ENDED TODAY AT 29/1210Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, DECLINING TO UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 AUG 147
  Predicted   30 AUG-01 SEP  150/150/140
  90 Day Mean        29 AUG 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  026/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%35%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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