Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY CAME FROM REGION 8319 (N18W41) WHICH PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M1/1N AT 0541Z AND AN M1/1N AT 0937Z. THE REGION GREW RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, MORE THAN DOUBLING IN SIZE, AND PRODUCED VERY FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT DISTRIBUTION APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM AN INTERMEDIATE TO COMPACT CONFIGURATION. A THIRD M-CLASS EVENT (M1/SN WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP) WAS PRODUCED BY 8307 (N30W65) AT 1805Z. ALL THREE OF TODAY'S M-CLASS FLARES WERE SHORT-LIVED, IMPULSIVE EVENTS. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE (700-800 MILLIONTHS), COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP. MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIXING OF MAGNETIC POLARITY INCLUDING A PROBABLE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE REGION.THE GROUP PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SUBFLARE EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, AND 8323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGH SPEED (500-580 KM/S), LOW DENSITY (1-3 P/CC) SOLAR WIND PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A FLUCTUATING, BUT MOSTLY NEGATIVE BZ INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT (RANGING FROM +2 TO -5 NT). THE GREATER THEN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
Class M85%85%85%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton35%35%35%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 AUG 163
  Predicted   31 AUG-02 SEP  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        30 AUG 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  011/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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