Viewing archive of Monday, 14 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED; A C1/SF AT 0452Z FROM REGION 8326 (N21W66), A SPOTLESS
PLAGE. ALTHOUGH SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, NONE HAS BEEN
PRODUCTIVE. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT LOW
LEVELS. WATCH THE NE LIMB FOR THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8307 (N30,
L-034), THE SITE OF FIVE X-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. THAT REGION
IS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 SEP 122 Predicted 15 SEP-17 SEP 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 14 SEP 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP 005/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP 005/008-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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