Viewing archive of Monday, 14 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED; A C1/SF AT 0452Z FROM REGION 8326 (N21W66), A SPOTLESS PLAGE. ALTHOUGH SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, NONE HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. WATCH THE NE LIMB FOR THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8307 (N30, L-034), THE SITE OF FIVE X-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. THAT REGION IS DUE TO RETURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 SEP 122
  Predicted   15 SEP-17 SEP  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        14 SEP 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  005/008-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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