Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8340 (N20W15) AND 8344 (S20W04). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCE 2 C-CLASS
EVENTS EACH. BOTH REGIONS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED INTO COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS. REGION 8340 HAS SHOWN
PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE REGIONS WERE STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8345 (N22W06) AND REGION 8346 (S30E41).
THERE ARE NOW 10 SPOT GROUPS ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8340 AND 8344 CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AND POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 SEP 135 Predicted 25 SEP-27 SEP 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 24 SEP 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 010/129 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 030/025-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 65% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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