Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8361 (N15W79) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8358 (N17W93).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8361. A SMALL M-CLASS FLARE
FROM THIS ACTIVE REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET. THE 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 OCT 121 Predicted 21 OCT-23 OCT 120/118/115 90 Day Mean 20 OCT 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT 027/052 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT 010/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT 015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, SodankyläReykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna
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