Viewing archive of Monday, 19 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361
(N14W66) GREW SLOWLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, TWO OF WHICH
REACHED C-CLASS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7/1N AT 19/1231Z
ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8358 (N15W82)
STABILIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES BEFORE DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB ON 22 OCTOBER. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 15
OCTOBER. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORM LEVELS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
III. Event Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 OCT 118 Predicted 20 OCT-22 OCT 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 OCT 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 035/050 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 015/030-015/020-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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