Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 November 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8389 (S19W44).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON EVENT ENDED AT 14/1645Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 6.1 PFU OBSERVED AT 14/0950Z. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO A RECURRENT PATTERN OF A NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 NOV 126
  Predicted   16 NOV-18 NOV  120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        15 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  021/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  010/010-010/012-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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