Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 November 1998

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384 (S26W88) PRODUCED TWO X-CLASS FLARES AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB. THE FIRST WAS AN X3/1N AT 22/0642UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 340 SFU TENFLARE, A SIGNIFICANT TYPE II RADIO SWEEP, A MINOR TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THE SECOND FLARE WAS AN X2/2N AT 22/1623UT WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. THIS SUDDEN INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS WAS SURPRISING GIVEN THE STABILITY EXHIBITED BY REGION 8384 DURING RECENT DAYS. A OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 22/1839UT. THE REMAINING REGIONS APPEARED STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8384 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE OUT OF VIEW. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A SOLAR PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT WAS DETECTED AT GEOSYNCHONOUS ALTITUDE FOLLOWING TODAY'S X3/1N FLARE. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0700UT, THEN RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1200UT. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BECAME ENHANCED AROUND 22/0800UT AND WAS GRADUALLY DECLINING TOWARD BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, BARRING ANOTHER PROTON FLARE FROM REGION 8384.

III. Event Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV

Class M	70%	50%	30%
Class X	30%	05%	01%
Proton	20%	10%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       22 NOV 126
  Predicted   23 NOV-25 NOV  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        22 NOV 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  012/009-015/009-015/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 NOV to 25 NOV

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	30%	30%
Minor storm	05%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	40%	40%
Minor storm	05%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.97nT), the direction is North (9.81nT).

Latest news

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

CME arrival, G3 storm watch

Friday, 28 March 2025

X1.1 solar flare

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

GLE. Ground Level Enhancements 5 2025/04/12-13 Filament CMEs 2025/04/16 G3 Watch 487 Coronal holes 58 Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 358 AR4062 37

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro