Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8419 (N27W14) PRODUCED TWO, REGION 8421
(N26E40) PRODUCED THREE, REGION 8422 (S23E51) WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ONE, AND ONE WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. THE LARGEST REGION ON THE
DISK IS REGION 8421 WHICH IS A DAI BETA GROUP WITH AN AREA OF 270
MILLIONTHS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF THE LONG DURATION M2 WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP THAT OCCURRED JUST BEHIND
THE NORTH EAST LIMB ON 23 DECEMBER AT 0659Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 DEC 145 Predicted 27 DEC-29 DEC 150/154/154 90 Day Mean 26 DEC 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 DEC 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 DEC 020/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 DEC-29 DEC 005/012-005/009-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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