Viewing archive of Friday, 22 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19W50) PRODUCED AN M1/SF EVENT AT 22/1724Z. REGION 8440 AND REGION 8439 (S23W57) HAVE MAINTAINED BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS WITH APPROXIMATELY 28 SPOTS IN EACH REGION. REGION 8444 (N19W14) HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH FROM A CSO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 7 SPOTS TO A DSO-BETA GROUP WITH 10 SPOTS. NEW REGION 8447 (N19W20) IS A CSO-BETA GROUP WITH 6 SPOTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 22/1500-1800Z PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS STAYED ENHANCED, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD. A WEAK SHOCK WAS SEEN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AT 22/2000Z AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ACTIVITY ON 20 JANUARY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED, OR INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
Class M50%50%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 JAN 178
  Predicted   23 JAN-25 JAN  180/178/175
  90 Day Mean        22 JAN 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  014/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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