Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION, OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-8 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT 07/0006Z. A TYPE II SWEEP
WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 600 KM/S WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.
SPACE-BASED IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE
WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS WERE VERY QUIET. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8433 (S28E10), 8434 (S26E46), AND 8435
(N14E18).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE'S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER C-CLASS X-RAY
BURST FROM BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8426 (N15W37) HOLDS THE
STRONGEST CHANCE FOR LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES DUE TO A LARGE
SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JAN to 10 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 JAN 115 Predicted 08 JAN-10 JAN 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 07 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN 008/012-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JAN to 10 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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