Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A VERY SLOW RISE-AND-FALL
C1 X-RAY EVENT WHICH REACHED THE C-CLASS LEVEL AT 09/1923UT.
GROUND-BASED H-ALPHA OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ORIGINATING FROM BEYOND THE NORTHWEST SOLAR
LIMB NEAR NW28. NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. REGION 8426 (N14W64) CONTINUES TO DECAY. REGION 8431 (S28E06)
IS GROWING SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8436 (S30E64) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8431 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JAN to 12 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 JAN 115 Predicted 10 JAN-12 JAN 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 09 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JAN 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JAN 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JAN-12 JAN 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JAN to 12 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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