Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A VERY SLOW RISE-AND-FALL C1 X-RAY EVENT WHICH REACHED THE C-CLASS LEVEL AT 09/1923UT. GROUND-BASED H-ALPHA OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ORIGINATING FROM BEYOND THE NORTHWEST SOLAR LIMB NEAR NW28. NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8426 (N14W64) CONTINUES TO DECAY. REGION 8431 (S28E06) IS GROWING SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8436 (S30E64) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8431 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JAN to 12 JAN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JAN 115
  Predicted   10 JAN-12 JAN  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        09 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JAN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JAN  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JAN-12 JAN  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JAN to 12 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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