Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19E56) PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE INTERVAL. THE FLARES WERE AN M3/SN AT 1020Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 1903Z. BOTH EVENTS WERE IMPULSIVE WITH LITTLE RESPONSE ACROSS THE RADIO SPECTRUM. REGION 8440 ALSO GENERATED A C6/1N AT 0100Z. REGION 8439 (S24E53), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, HAD A FEW SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ELSEWHERE, NEW REGION 8441 (N18E28) WAS BORN ON THE DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED CONDITIONS VARYING FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. THIS DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION, IS NOW WEAKENING.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ISOLATED BRIEF SUBSTORMS MAY BRING ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JAN 137
  Predicted   15 JAN-17 JAN  150/160/170
  90 Day Mean        14 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN  019/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN  020/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN  010/012-010/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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