Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 April 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW WITH MINOR FLARES UP TO CLASS C INTENSITY OCCURRING IN REGION 8508 (N22W29). THE REGION APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BUT REMAINS ACTIVE AND COMPLEX.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED. THE SOURCE OF THE SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE A MODERATE HIGH-SPEED STREAM IN THE SOLAR WIND. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SLOW DECAY TOWARD MORE NOMINAL VALUES. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAIN MODERATELY ENHANCED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 12 APR to 14 APR
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 APR 131
  Predicted   12 APR-14 APR  130/130/128
  90 Day Mean        11 APR 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR  010/010-010/008-009/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 APR to 14 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active13%14%15%
Minor storm07%05%06%
Major-severe storm03%03%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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