Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 September 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY EVENT, WITH NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL FLARE, WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE INTERVAL. IT OCCURRED AT 0507Z. THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, ALL IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, WERE STABLE OR DECLINING. REGIONS 8682 (N17W14) AND 8687 (N11W33) WERE THE BRIGHTEST.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PASSED THE HIGH LEVEL NEAR MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CORONAL TRANSIENTS MAY BRING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR 06 SEPTEMBER, WITH A CALMING TREND BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 SEP 131
  Predicted   05 SEP-07 SEP  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        04 SEP 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP  014/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  013/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  010/010-020/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%50%40%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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