Viewing archive of Friday, 1 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. EIGHT C-CLASS EVENTS WERE RECORDED, THE LARGEST BEING A C7 FLARE AT 01/0017UT. ALL OF THE C-CLASS FLARES WERE UNCORRELATED AND PROBABLY ORIGINATED FROM OVER THE EAST LIMB. GROUND BASED OBSERVATORIES AND SPACECRAFT DATA SHOW TWO DISTINCT ACTIVE AREAS ON THE EAST LIMB THAT SHOULD ROTATE ONTO THE FACE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A TYPE II SWEEP (600 KM/S) OCCURRED AT 01/0816UT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C3 X-RAY FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE THE POSSIBLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION OF TWO CORONAL HOLES.
III. Event Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 OCT 122
  Predicted   02 OCT-04 OCT  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        01 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  014/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%50%50%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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