Viewing archive of Friday, 19 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8773 (S14E39) WAS SPLIT
OFF FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8771 (S15E28). TWO OTHER
SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8774 (N22E69) AND REGION
8775 (S17W18). A LARGE FILAMENT/PROMINENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS
ERUPTED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. MAJOR FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8765 (S12
W34), REGION 8766 (N17 W11), AND REGION 8771 (S15E28).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS BASICALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD EXPECTED
TO BE UNSETTELED TO ACTIVE. THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 NOV 210 Predicted 20 NOV-22 NOV 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 19 NOV 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV 020/020-015/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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