Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8799 HAS MERGED WITH
REGION 8798 (S14E34) AND IS NOW PART OF THAT ONE REGION. REGION 8798
IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 410
MILLIONTHS. IN WHITE LIGHT REGION 8798 HAS A COMPLEX APPEARANCE BUT
REMAINS MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA GROUP. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 16/0744Z. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8802 (S23E04), REGION 8803
(S14E24), AND REGION 8804 (S18E78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8798 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 DEC 194 Predicted 17 DEC-19 DEC 200/210/195 90 Day Mean 16 DEC 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC 005/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 DEC to 19 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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