Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 11/0424UT. REGION 8824 (S13E47) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OPTICAL SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SF AT
11/0116UT. REGION 8824 DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD. A TEN DEGREE LONG DISAPPEARING
SOLAR FILAMENT (S34E41) WAS NOTED AT 11/1440UT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 8826 (N18W21) AND 8827 (S11W20).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE
PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE REPORTING DAY. THIS INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY IS DUE TO HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY
TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 JAN 178 Predicted 12 JAN-14 JAN 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 11 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN 018/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JAN to 14 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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