Viewing archive of Monday, 7 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8861 (N08W40) PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C4/SF AT 07/1654Z. THIS REGION WAS ACTIVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. WHITE LIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO IMPRESSIVE, DEVELOPING FROM 20 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO OVER 200 MILLIONTHS TODAY. SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8858 (N27E27) WAS ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY STABLE, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE THE X1/3B FLARE ON 5 FEB. MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY STILL EXISTS BUT LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ANYTIME IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8858 AND 8861 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN ON 5 FEB IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING SOON. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 FEB 182
  Predicted   08 FEB-10 FEB  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        07 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  021/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%25%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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