Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OF THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, REGION 8837 (S08W55) HAS SHOWN THE MOST DEVELOPMENT, DOUBLING IN AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13W72) CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8839 (N11E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. A MAJOR SEGMENT OF THE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N60E10 DISAPPEARED AFTER 0800UT ON 19 JANUARY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8837 AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A K OF 4 WAS OBSERVED IN BOULDER AT 1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THRU 22 JAN. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT CONTINUE TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK. ON 23 JAN THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 JAN 171
  Predicted   21 JAN-23 JAN  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        20 JAN 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  012/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  015/012-025/035-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 JAN to 23 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm10%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%02%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%06%01%

All times in UTC

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