Viewing archive of Friday, 21 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 21/0648UT. EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS REGION 8833 (N18W24) AS THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT. GROWTH CONTINUES IN REGION 8837 (S07W69), HOWEVER, ITS FLARE PRODUCTION HAS BEEN LOW. A LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE, WHICH HAS BEEN VISIBLE DURING EACH SOLAR ROTATION FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS, IS AGAIN ROTATING OVER THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE M-FLARE EVENTS OBSERVED ON 18 JANUARY.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JAN to 24 JAN
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 JAN 159
  Predicted   22 JAN-24 JAN  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        21 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN  025/035-015/012-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JAN to 24 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm02%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%10%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm06%01%01%

All times in UTC

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