Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE, AN M1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED
AT 22/1802UT FROM REGION 8831 (S17W53). THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A MINOR RADIO BURST AND WAS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S43W32. THERE ARE NINE
SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, BUT ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECAYING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN BY THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT 22/0023UT, HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO NOTICEABLE IMPULSE ON
GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK AT ACE. THE BZ
COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD HAS BEEN NEGATIVE (SOUTH) FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, REACHING A MINIMUM OF -18NT AROUND 22/1800UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RETURNING TO QUIET
LEVELS AFTER 23 JAN.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 JAN 151 Predicted 23 JAN-25 JAN 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 22 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN 000/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JAN to 25 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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