Viewing archive of Friday, 18 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY FOUR LOW INTENSITY C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS AN UNCORRELATED C2 AND
REGION 8869 (S21W35) PRODUCED A C1/SF WITH A HIGH SPEED (1400 KM/S)
RADIO SWEEP AT 18/0844UT. REGION 8872, WHICH PRODUCED AN M1/2N FLARE
WITH A FULL-HALO CME YESTERDAY, BECAME SPOTLESS TODAY. THE REST OF
THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FROM 18/1130 TO 18/1405UT.
AFTER THAT TIME THEY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SHOCK FROM A FULL-HALO CME
PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH.
III. Event Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 FEB 141 Predicted 19 FEB-21 FEB 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 18 FEB 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB 008/005-030/025-030/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 19% | 19% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YTCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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