Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M2/1B ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 17/1852UT FROM REGION 8869 (S22W21). AN M1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 17/2035UT ACCOMPANIED BY A 200 SFU TENFLARE. THIS EVENT WAS REPORTED TO OCCUR IN REGION 8872 (S29E02). THE OPTICAL OBSERVATORY WAS UNABLE OF DETERMINE THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE FLARE DUE TO POOR SEEING CONDITIONS. BOTH EVENTS PRODUCED DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENTS AS WELL. THESE EVENTS WERE SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED AS THE REGIONS SHOWED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY PRIOR TO FLARING. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY DUE TO THE M2 AND M1 EVENTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THIS PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 FEB to 20 FEB
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 FEB 168
  Predicted   18 FEB-20 FEB  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        17 FEB 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB  008/008-008/008-042/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 FEB to 20 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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