Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 March 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W20) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, AN M1/1N AT 15/1840UT. THIS ACTIVE REGION REMAINS LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E31) CONTINUES TO GROW AND HAS PRODUCED A FEW SMALL FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C3/SF AT 14/2105UT. OTHER SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION 8906. A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
Class M75%75%75%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAR 179
  Predicted   16 MAR-18 MAR  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        15 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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