Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 March 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED PRIMARILY IN REGION 8906 (S16W09). THIS REGION IS NOW A LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP EXCEEDING 900 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. PARTICULARLY STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS EXIST WITHIN COMPLEX DELTA CONFIGURATIONS AND SEVERAL NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION 8910 (N10E43) PRODUCED OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS DEVELOPED MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. A 17 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM NEAR S34E38 AT 14/0348Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGION 8911 (N11W43), 8912 (N15W02), AND 8913 (S14E66). REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. COMPLEX REGION 8906 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8910 WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 14/09 - 14/12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
Class M75%75%75%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAR 183
  Predicted   15 MAR-17 MAR  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        14 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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