Viewing archive of Monday, 13 March 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E06) PRODUCED AN M3/1B AT 12/2338Z AND AN M1/1N AT 13/1048Z. BOTH FLARES HAD ASSOCIATED MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES AND MAINTAINS A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS. REGION 8910 (N09E56) WAS MODERATELY ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 13/1439Z. BOTH REGIONS 8898 (S14W70) AND 8904 (N24W70) APPEAR TO BE DECAYING AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8906 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8910 AND FROM REGIONS 8898 AND 8904 AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED LEVELS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, BUT WAS QUIET SINCE 13/00Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 MAR to 16 MAR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 MAR 188
  Predicted   14 MAR-16 MAR  185/180/170
  90 Day Mean        13 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR  015/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 MAR to 16 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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