Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E01) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0416Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DISK IN TERMS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND FLARE PRODUCTION, AND CONTINUES TO POSSESS A SMALL DELTA SPOT. GROWTH IN THE REGION HAS LEVELED OFF. NEW REGION 8953 (S14E72) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL M-FLARES FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED (510-600 KM/S) BUT SHOWS LOW DENSITY (1-3 P/CC) AND WEAK MAGNETIC FIELDS (3 TO 5 NT).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 APR 176
  Predicted   10 APR-12 APR  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        09 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  008/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  010/010-007/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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