Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E14) PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0240Z AND AN M1/1N AT 2046Z. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND HAS A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE INCLUDING A SMALL DELTA SPOT. NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S OBSERVED FLARE ACTIVITY CAME FROM THIS GROUP. REGION 8951 (N13E64) ROTATED MORE FULLY INTO VIEW AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8949 (S19E43) EXHIBITED GROWTH BUT WAS STABLE. A CME WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 1554Z TODAY: THE MATERIAL WAS CONSTRAINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL ANGLE OFF THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, AND DISK OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE SOURCE REGION WAS JUST BEHIND WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8948 SHOWS FAIR-GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED FROM 0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND SPEED REMAINS ELEVATED (500-550 KM/S), BUT THE DENSITY IS LOW AND THE MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY IS WEAK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 APR 182
  Predicted   09 APR-11 APR  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        08 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR  034/050
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR  012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 APR to 11 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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