Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B9 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED FROM 06/0945-1133Z. COINCIDENT IN TIME WITH THIS EVENT WAS A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N26E39. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. DISK REGIONS WERE SMALL AND EXHIBITED LITTLE EVOLUTION. A PROMINENCE NEAR SW34 SLOWLY ELEVATED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERUPTING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC PROTON FLUXES WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE BACKGROUND BUT FAR BELOW EVENT LEVEL.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 MAY 127
  Predicted   07 MAY-09 MAY  127/130/133
  90 Day Mean        06 MAY 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY  010/010-010/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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