Viewing archive of Monday, 10 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15W19) PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 2342Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEEP. THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA FOR A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT PRODUCER OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELTA SPOT. THE SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS FOR 8948 REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: 8954 (N32E65), 8955 (S22E75), 8956 (N11E53), AND 8957 (S09W24). ALL OF THESE REGIONS WERE SIMPLE AND STABLE. REGION 8957 EMERGED JUST NORTHWEST OF 8948 WITH ITS OWN IDENTITY AS A SIMPLE BIPOLAR GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS (450-550 KM/S) WERE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK NEGATIVE INTERPLANETARY BZ (-3 TO -5 NT), AND PRODUCED AN EXTENDED INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS FROM 09/2100-10/1200Z. CONDITIONS DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FROM 1200Z THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT 1355Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH-LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS ON THE SECOND DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 APR 178
  Predicted   11 APR-13 APR  175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        10 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR  018/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR  010/010-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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